According to a recent opinion study done nationwide by India TV in collaboration with survey firm CNX, the YSR Congress party, led by Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, may lose the 2024 Andhra Pradesh assembly elections by a narrow margin. The poll analysis highlights an intriguing point: N Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party, Jagan’s primary adversary, may not be able to secure an absolute majority of 90 assembly seats and may instead need to rely on its political partners, the Bharatiya Janata Party and Jana Sena.
The recent two days’ survey results that India TV aired were mostly focused on the Lok Sabha elections, however if they are extended to the assembly election results, the TDP will not lead Andhra Pradesh’s government; instead, a coalition will. The survey was carried out nationwide from March 1 to March 30 with a sample size of almost 1.80 lakh participants. This survey in Andhra Pradesh predicts that the TDP, Jana Sena, and BJP together form the National Democratic Alliance, which will win fifteen Lok Sabha seats.
Out of the 17 seats it is running for, the TDP will receive 12 MP seats, and the BJP will receive 3 MP seats out of the 6 seats it is running for.
The Jana Sena Party, which is running for two seats in the Lok Sabha, might come up empty. The TDP will receive 84 assembly seats if these numbers are extrapolated to the state assembly election outcomes.
Only 10 assembly seats are up for grabs, whereas Jana Sena is running for 21. The BJP’s three Lok Sabha seats may not exactly translate into 21 assembly seats; if there is a vote-sharing arrangement amongst the parties, the TDP may receive three or four assembly seats.
However, according to the opinion poll, the YSRCP is expected to receive 10 MP seats, which translates to 70 assembly seats. In the event that the NDA alliance partners do not exchange votes, the YSRCP may gain an additional four or five assembly seats. As Naidu’s party approaches the absolute majority threshold of 90 assembly seats, it may need to rely on the BJP and the Jana Sena Party to establish the government.
That means, if the India Today-CNX survey is accurate, things won’t be easy for the TDP!